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<span id="openzim-page-title" class="mw-page-title-main"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Probability of kill</span></span>
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<p><a href="Computer_game" class="mw-redirect" title="Computer game">Computer games</a>, <a href="Simulation" title="Simulation">simulations</a>, <a href="Mathematical_model" title="Mathematical model">models</a>, and <a href="Operations_research" title="Operations research">operations research</a> programs often require a mechanism to determine <a href="Statistic" title="Statistic">statistically</a> how likely the engagement between a weapon and a target will result in a satisfactory outcome (i.e. "kill"), known as the <b>probability of kill</b>. <a href="Performance_audit" title="Performance audit">Performance auditing</a> and statistical decisions are required when all of the variables that must be considered are not incorporated into the current model, similar to the actuarial methods used by <a href="Insurance_companies" class="mw-redirect" title="Insurance companies">insurance companies</a> to deal with large numbers of customers and huge numbers of variables. Likewise, <a href="Military_planning" class="mw-redirect" title="Military planning">military planners</a> rely on such calculations to determine the quantity of weapons necessary to destroy an enemy force.
</p><p>The probability of kill, or "P<sub>k</sub>", is usually based on a uniform <a href="Random_number_generation" title="Random number generation">random number</a> generator. This algorithm creates a number between 0 and 1 that is approximately uniformly distributed in that space. If the P<sub>k</sub> of a weapon/target engagement is 30% (or 0.30), then every random number generated that is less than 0.3 is considered a "kill"; every number greater than 0.3 is considered a "no kill". When used many times in a simulation, the average result will be that 30% of the weapon/target engagements will be a kill and 70% will not be a kill.
</p><p>This measure may also be used to express the <a href="Accuracy" class="mw-redirect" title="Accuracy">accuracy</a> of a <a href="Weapon_system" class="mw-redirect" title="Weapon system">weapon system</a>, known as the <b>probability of hit</b> or "P<sub>hit</sub>". For example, if a weapon is expected to hit a target nine times out of ten with a representative set of ten engagements, one could say that this weapon has a P<sub>hit</sub> of 0.9. If the chance of hits is nine out of ten, but the probability of a kill with a hit is 0.5, then the P<sub>k</sub> becomes 0.45 or 45%. This reflects the fact that even modern guided warheads may not always destroy a hit target such as an <a href="Aircraft" title="Aircraft">aircraft</a>, <a href="Missile" title="Missile">missile</a> or <a href="Main_battle_tank" title="Main battle tank">main battle tank</a>.
</p><p>Additional factors include the probability of detection (P<sub>d</sub>), reliability of the targeting system (R<sub>sys</sub>), and reliability of the weapon (R<sub>w</sub>), to name a few. For example, if a missile operates properly <i>e.g.</i> 90% of the time (assuming a good shot), the targeting system operates properly 85% of the time, and enemy targets are detected at 50%, accuracy of the P<sub>k</sub> estimation can be increased:
</p><p>P<sub>k</sub> = P<sub>hit</sub> * P<sub>d</sub> * R<sub>sys</sub> * R<sub>w</sub>
</p><p>For example:
</p><p>P<sub>k</sub> = 0.9 * 0.5 * 0.85 * 0.90 = 0.344
</p><p>Users can also specify a probability according to a class of targets, for example, it has been stated that the <a href="SA-10_Grumble" class="mw-redirect" title="SA-10 Grumble">SA-10</a> <a href="Surface-to-air_missile" title="Surface-to-air missile">surface-to-air missile</a> system has a P<sub>k</sub> of 0.9 against highly maneuvering targets, whereas its P<sub>k</sub> against non-maneuvering targets is much higher.
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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2></div>
<ul><li><a href="Dense_inert_metal_explosive" title="Dense inert metal explosive">Dense inert metal explosive</a></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>
<ul><li>A.M. Law and W.D. Kelton, <i>Simulation Modeling and Analysis</i>, McGraw Hill, 1991.</li>
<li>J. Banks (editor), <i>Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice</i>, John Wiley & Sons, 1998.</li>
<li>R. Smith and D. Stoner, "Fingers of Death: Algorithms for Combat Killing", <i>Game Programming Gems 4</i>, Charles River Media, 2004.</li></ul></div><!--htdig_noindex--><div><div class="zim-footer">
This article is issued from <a class="external text" title="Last edited on 2024-07-18" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?title=Probability_of_kill&oldid=1235314695">Wikipedia</a>. The text is available under <a class="external text" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en">Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0</a> unless otherwise noted. Additional terms may apply for the media files.
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